Land use sequestration potential and uncertainties in India’s net-zero pathway

Land use can contribute substantially to climate change mitigation through carbon storage in vegetation and soils. We assess how India’s long-term land-use carbon sequestration may vary under different policy pathways and biophysical uncertainties by integrating economic dynamics with soil and vegetation carbon responses across major land-use classes. Here we show that scientific and policy uncertainties strongly influence India’s projected land-use sequestration. Across the full uncertainty range, forests and tree cover could sequester an additional 8.8-31.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between 2015 and 2070, depending on soil carbon accumulation rates and densities, the timing of achieving the 33% forest and tree cover target (2050 or 2070), and the extent of agroforestry adoption. Annual sequestration across forests, tree cover, croplands, grasslands, shrublands, and fallow lands is projected to range from 68 to 719 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2070. We also find that India is on track to meet its 2030 climate commitment. Land use in India could remove 68–719 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by 2070, with forests and tree cover sequestering 8.8–12.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent during 2015–2070, according to an integrated economic, soil and vegetation carbon assessment.