The hidden cost of positivity: Ensuring integrity in scientific research

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• Math & statistics/StatisticsSep 25, 2026

  A unified framework for estimating direct causal effect under spatial confounding and interference, with the R package spaci

  We develop a unified framework that treats both simultaneously.

  Isqeel Ogunsola, Olatunji Johnson — arXiv

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• Math & statistics/StatisticsSep 25, 2026

  Phylodynamic inference with the bounded coalescent: a point process perspective

  We then develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for posterior inference of effective population size trajectories that avoids discretization of the likelihood integrals.

  Bingjing Tang, Shuangping Li, Julia A. Palacios — arXiv

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• Math & statistics/StatisticsSep 25, 2026

  GRACE: A General, Exact Changepoint Calculus

  We introduce GRACE, the General Regime-Aware Changepoint Estimator, for an ${\ell }_0$-penalized problem that jointly selects the number and locations of changepoints, segment forms, transition types, and continuous parameters.

  Michael Grantham — arXiv

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• Math & statistics/StatisticsSep 25, 2026

  Optimal sequential decision-making with initiation regimes

  These regimes follow human decision-makers up to the point where it becomes more beneficial to initiate a sequential optimal regime, and are guaranteed to outperform both purely human and purely algorithmic decision rules, e.g., based on reinforcement learning algorithms.

  Julien D. Laurendeau, Leora Sarvet, Mats J. Stensrud — arXiv

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• Math & statistics/StatisticsSep 25, 2026

  Statistical Inference for Causal Discovery under Selection and Latent Variables via Single-Target Interventions

  We develop a model-free and constraint-query optimal statistical inference framework for causal discovery under latent variables and selection using single-target interventions.

  Xiaotian Hou, Kwangmoon Park, Hongzhe Li — arXiv

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