Social structural factors outperform economic assumptions in explaining global municipal waste generation
In the authors' words
Municipal solid waste generation depends on a complex mix of economic, social, environmental, and governance factors, yet the drivers behind it remain poorly understood. Here we show that waste generation across countries is linked to socioeconomic inequality, gender gaps in employment, and resource-intensive economic models, as well as to health indicators such as mental health, drug-related mortality, and life expectancy. Broader measures of human development, the balance between rural and urban populations, marriage equality, education levels, carbon emissions, and birth rates also shape how much waste a country produces. Agricultural land area is tied to waste levels, reflecting food supply chains and agro-industrial activity, while freedom of expression is associated with consumption-driven waste in open, economically advanced societies. These results show that waste generation reflects a country’s overall social development and institutions, not just its wealth or degree of urbanization, pointing to targeted levers for waste-reduction policy. The Human Development Index, CO2 emissions per capita, disease prevalence, and life expectancy are key predictors of municipal waste generation across countries, according to a machine learning analysis of 239 indicators from 195 countries.
Appeared: Sunday, September 27. Communications Earth & Environment. Peer-reviewed journal.