New papers on Economics
52 new papers on economics in the last 7 days, within Economy & society. These are the 50 Pipette rates most worth reading, with the main result in the authors' own words.
The best of the week
Valuing five centuries of unpaid breastfeeding in England
We impute upper and lower bounds for the value of unpaid breastfeeding over five centuries in England to better understand its economic role over the course of economic development.
Peer-reviewed journalBroad interestEconomic-boom-driven electricity demand linked to urban air pollution and health in India
These findings highlight contrasting indoor and outdoor air-pollution health consequences of coal-dependent economic growth.
Peer-reviewed journalReal-world usePareto-Improving Pricing: Why 3 Is Better Than 2
Contrary to the equity-efficiency tradeoff emphasized in public debates, we show that under economically natural conditions priority pricing can Pareto-improve on an equal-allocation benchmark.
PreprintNetwork-based modeling of cocaine trafficking flows and displacement effects
In this paper, we introduce a network-based model of actual transnational cocaine flows, beyond flows seized.
PreprintStructural versus Allocative Inefficiency Across Organizational Settings
Under weak and realistic conditions, structural inefficiency dominates allocative inefficiency, explaining why optimization often fails before organizational coherence is restored.
PreprintPoisson Regression under Multivariate Sample Selection
This paper develops a Poisson regression model with multivariate sample selection, in which the outcome is observed only when several potentially correlated selection conditions are satisfied.
PreprintClaims a big stepThe Same Ledger, Different Verdicts: How Measurement Specification Determines On-Chain Concentration
On two ERC-20 ledgers, Chainlink (LINK) and Uniswap (UNI) over a 90-day window, we show that verdict depends on measurement specification rather than the ledger itself.
PreprintCode availableFrom Individual to Social Imitation: How Communities Expand Organizational Search
Social imitation thus reveals a division of cognitive labor: communities expand the strategies organizations can consider, while organizations create value by determining which strategies fit.
PreprintWhen Trust Attracts Fraud: AI and Trust Arbitrage
In the age of generative AI, trust can thus create an endogenous but temporary protection gap that redirects deception across markets.
Preprint with a published versionStealing profits: Spread-based temporal hierarchy forecasting for day-ahead electricity markets
Here we show that a temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) framework that jointly reconciles forecasts of hourly electricity prices and all intraday price spreads consistently improves performance across two major European electricity markets and three different forecasting architectures.
PreprintReal-world usePriority Blockers: Welfare and Incentives in Matching under General Constraints
We introduce COP-and-Choose, a cumulative offer process followed by a choice step, and show that its greedy version, which skips such blockers, leaves no student worse off than any fair matching or Knapsack Deferred Acceptance (KDA).
PreprintRule-Based Pricing Algorithms and Market Outcomes: An Experimental Study
Most treatment variations raise market prices with effects driven by an increase in starting prices and more cooperative algorithm designs.
PreprintDon't Fake It If You Can't Make It: Driver Misconduct in Last-Mile Delivery
In this study, we collaborated with a leading Indian LMD firm and, using instrumental variable regression, find that such misconduct leads to a spillover productivity loss.
PreprintMultilayer Analysis of the Global Trade Network
These results highlight the value of multilayer network analysis for revealing patterns in global trade that remain hidden at the aggregate level.
PreprintDecision-Centered Evaluation of Machine Learning Poverty Maps Using Mobile Phone and Satellite Data
These findings support evaluating poverty maps by targeting performance and geographic transfer, while recognising that agreement with an asset index does not establish consumption-poverty accuracy.
PreprintAuctions as Experiments
Our main finding is that among a large class of auctions (e.g., th-price, all-pay), the first-price auction is the most informative.
PreprintBiased Agents, Extreme Beliefs: Motivated Reasoning Under Competing Models
Within-participant comparisons between the symmetric payoff and asymmetric payoff conditions indicate that asymmetric payoffs shift reported beliefs toward the preferred state, particularly among participants classified as best-fit updaters.
PreprintA Stochastic Nested Fixed Point Algorithm for Large-Scale BLP Estimation
We develop a stochastic nested fixed point (SNFP) estimator for random coefficients logit demand models that updates model parameters using stochastic gradients and performs demand inversion one market at a time.
PreprintWho Enters the Record? Paywalls, Contributor Selection, and Social Learning
This paper studies social learning when buying access to previous decisions also determines whose decision enters the record.
PreprintCertifying Priority in Evidence-Based Allocation
A claim is certifiable exactly when every intended claimant has a feasible certificate excluding all outsiders.
PreprintCooperating against Catastrophe
We characterize Markov perfect equilibria in terms of the disaster risk, how quickly safety advances, and flow payoffs: when they are low, only racing is an equilibrium; when they are intermediate, racing and pacing coexist; when they are high, only pacing survives.
PreprintDecision-Relevant Information in Partially Observed Production Networks
A production network can remain largely unidentified even when the economic decision it supports is identified.
PreprintNormalized fractional Hirsch Index and Modified Pareto Law
We show here that a normalized fractional Hirsch index, giving the fraction of total citations earned by fraction of those successful papers published by the author, can even indicate that typically about of the top cited papers earn about of citations for very successful scientists (like the 95 Nobel Laureates considered here).
PreprintBold claims, read criticallyThe Depth and Reach of Exploitation: Contracting with Endogenously Naive Consumers
Firms face a trade-off between the depth and reach of exploitation: deeper exploitation raises profit from a naive consumer but induces greater cognitive investment, promoting sophistication and shrinking the exploitable consumer base.
PreprintSingleton-Attainability and Transparent Access in Matching
We establish general conditions for SA and derive its strategic implications.
PreprintMulti-Dimensional Matching
We prove that on descaled features and preferences, our algorithm obtains the exact Nash Social Welfare (NSW) optimum within the projected space, with an unconditional utilitarian-welfare guarantee and a conditional NSW guarantee.
PreprintSummary Indices in Treatment Effect Estimation
The paper derives the weights and shows that, for inverse-covariance-weighted indices, they can be negative and unrestricted in magnitude, so the index effect can have the opposite sign to every component effect.
PreprintBricks or Cash? Externalities of Housing Upgrading in High-density Cities
Controlling for nonrandom neighborhood exposure, we find that upgrading raises treated buildings' prices by 11.5% upon completion and neighboring buildings' resale prices by about 2% within 500 meters, decaying to zero beyond.
PreprintThe network advantage: benefits of interregional scientific knowledge spillovers on AI patenting
Using a network-econometric approach across 26 Chinese provincial-level regions from 2006 to 2020, we find that co-publication spillovers foster AI patenting, but the returns concentrate almost entirely in regions where privately owned enterprises dominate R&D, reinforcing regional divergence.
PreprintBifurcation and Multistability in a Collective-Risk Public Goods Game with Quorum-Activated Protection
These results distinguish the effectiveness of activated protection from its ability to become established from rarity.
PreprintOrderFusion+: Probabilistic Buy--Sell Price Trajectory Forecasting in Intraday Electricity Markets
In this paper, we propose OrderFusion+, an open-source deep learning model that combines historical orders from the target and neighboring delivery products to forecast probabilistic buy-sell price trajectories.
PreprintReal-world useMinimally rational reallocation of objects
Although the two rules operate through different procedures, we show that they rest on a common axiomatic foundation.
PreprintGeneric Covariate Adjustment for Regression Discontinuity Designs
This paper proposes a novel entropy balancing reweighting approach for covariate adjustment within a general framework of RDDs and RKDs.
PreprintNonlinear Drivers of Macroeconomic Tail Risk: A Threshold Stochastic Volatility-in-Mean VAR with Regime-Dependent Leverage
The structural composition of tail risk differs from that of the predictive median.
PreprintCausal inference in two-sided randomization designs: factorial regression, two-way clustering, and covariate adjustment
Our first main result establishes that researchers can estimate these effects using ordinary least squares and conduct asymptotically valid design-based inference using the conventional two-way cluster-robust variance estimator, clustered at the buyers' and sellers' levels.
PreprintFirst as Tragedy? Second as What? Estimating Dynamic Effects of Recurrent Events
Combined with a linear-in-parameters model of effect growth, this assumption enables a sequential imputation estimator that consistently estimates the dynamic effects of each event occurrence and that can accommodate heterogeneity in effects according to observable event attributes, such as intensity.
PreprintMonodromy of Walrasian Equilibrium Prices: A Fixed-Preference Endowment-Redistribution Construction
For every number of commodities , we construct a closed one-parameter family of pure-exchange economies in which all preferences are fixed, only three individual endowments vary, and aggregate resources remain constant.
PreprintDynamic Disclosure with(out) Timestamps
Timestamps prevent pretending old good evidence is fresh and certify bad evidence is old, accelerating good-evidence disclosure and facilitating bad-evidence disclosure.
PreprintMatch forecasts in UEFA club competitions: Elo ratings versus Transfermarkt valuations
Our results suggest that seeding based on Elo ratings would be (closely) optimal.
PreprintA Reverse War of Attrition
We characterize a unique symmetric equilibrium.
PreprintComplementary Information Sources
One source set is more valuable in every decision problem if and only if each tagged mixture of the second source set is Blackwell dominated by some tagged mixture of the first.
PreprintContracting under Misspecification
With observable actions, an optimal contract is linear in output, so performance pay arises solely to share misspecification exposure, the slope reflects the parties' relative robustness concerns, and its allocation is Pareto efficient.
PreprintThe Fiscal Alibi: Hidden Spending Needs and Government Reputation
A mean-preserving spread of legitimate needs weakly raises the opportunist's lifetime value, with a strict increase precisely when the spread changes the upper tail relevant for mimicry.
PreprintStrategy-proof choice on strictly convex frontiers
On the full domain of linear support preferences, ordinary individual strategy-proofness and diagonal unanimity force the rule to select one fixed participant's preferred point at every profile.
PreprintNew Approaches to Strategic Thinking in Dynamic Games
We present several models of strategic choice concerning equilibrium reasoning and behaviour, as well as new applications to dynamic games.
PreprintHeterogeneous Policy Effects in Comparative Case Studies with Treated-Unit Microdata
This article develops an identification framework for heterogeneous policy effects when individual-level data are unavailable for the comparison units.
PreprintKernel Balancing in Tree-based Methods
Overall, the results indicate that KBal leads to performance improvements, especially in settings with nonlinear treatment effects and limited overlap, making it a useful alternative to propensity score methods.
PreprintCursed Rationalizability
We propose a solution concept that separates the bias from equilibrium: cursed rationalizability iteratively deletes every action that is not a cursed response to a conjecture about opponents' surviving play.
PreprintThe Uniqueness of Exponential Second-Order Expected Utility
On the aggregator side, matched curvature is necessary: at a fixed curvature no other continuous, strictly increasing aggregator delivers the reduction, and with mismatched curvature there are a model set and a prior for which no single-layer entropic value, at any curvature and any baseline, reproduces the criterion.
PreprintImplicit Smooth Ambiguity: Perception, Attitude, and Identification
The contribution is therefore a behavioral decomposition of utility-level dependence in smooth ambiguity into separately revealed perception and attitude components.
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